June 5, 2024

How To Decide

Every decision is a gamble.

When you decide on a course of action, you’re placing a bet that your decision will pay off.

It might work, or it might not work.

You don’t know in advance.

You CAN’T know in advance.

You have to take a chance.

As with all bets, you must put some “chips on the table” for a chance to “win the pot.”

The trick to making good decisions over the long term is to consistently try to maximize your payoff and minimize what you put at risk.

In other words, don’t “bet the farm” on a long shot that is highly unlikely to pay off.

Instead, make lots of small bets that have the potential of paying off big.

Small bets might not be as exciting as big ones, but that’s where the magic happens.

Yours,

—J